While on reddit discussing Victarion in a post by u/RockyRockington the other day, I started talking to u/rachelseacow about this topic. She said to make it into a post, so here it is:
A Pattern of POV’s Who Mistrust an Adversary but Don’t Act Accordingly, only to Pay the Price for Inaction
GRRM is using a pattern of the POV thinking of reasons not to do something or to trust someone, yet disregarding those mental reasons and proceeding anyway. Put another way, they have a way of doubting the intentions of those around them, but not acting upon those doubts. It amounts to a “tell” by GRRM, though likely a conscious tell. I believe he wants us to see and then dismiss these doubts, much as our POVs do. He uses it to foreshadow the eventual punch to the gut when we see the consequence of ignoring the doubts. I’ll go through how I see this working with several POVs but I don’t want this to be a long essay, so I’ll doubtless only scratch the surface of this pattern.
Victarion and the Dusky Woman
I think the best example of Victarion following this pattern is by how he continues to “use” the dusky woman, although his plan to use the Dragonbinder horn also qualifies. Victarion thinks “Euron’s gifts are poisoned” 4 times in the published story, although the final time is phrased “Euron’s gifts are always poisoned.“ Both the woman and the horn are gifts from Euron.
Despite this, he does not discard the woman, even though he tells himself he must
Euron’s gifts are poisoned, the captain had reminded himself the day the dusky woman came aboard. I want none of his leavings. He had decided then that he would slit her throat and toss her in the sea, a blood sacrifice to the Drowned God. Somehow, though, he had never quite gotten around to it.
Certainly the reason he doesn’t is because he does regret his brutal murder of his own salt-wife whose only crime was being another one of Euron’s leavings. Somehow he cannot bring himself to repeat such a crime, even as he proceeds to murder many others who get in his way on the journey to Slaver’s Bay. Many in the fandom, including myself believe that Euron is using this dusky woman to spy on him, and possibly worse, but even though he consciously knows that he should discard her, he doesn’t. He would have to kill her to do this and that would bring back painful memories. We know that he could just drop her off in some port, but the brutal Victarion can’t conceive of this; all his coping mechanisms involve either appeasement or murder, apparently. Euron wins because of Victarion’s inability to act.
He thinks he’s going to turn the tables on Euron and betray him somehow with the use of Dragonbinder or with a ship full of ham, and get his own dragon, and/or marrying Daenerys himself. I don’t think his betrayal will work out for him; he may never even be able to start to act against his brother, who seems ten cyvasse moves ahead. I think that the pattern he sets with the dusky woman foreshadows that he will fail in these endeavors as well, to his doom. He is the corpse at the prow of a ship, a dead man walking.
Cat, Ned, and Littlefinger
Another prime example of this is in how Cat trusts and convinces Ned to trust Littlefinger, leading to Ned’s death and other terrible consequences for her children. Even as he angers her at their reunion in King’s Landing she thinks this.
“I’ve angered you, my lady. That was never my intent.” He looked contrite. The look brought back vivid memories for Catelyn. He had been a sly child, but after his mischiefs he always looked contrite; it was a gift he had.
If that was not a huge red flag that she knows he’s a big fat liar, she later confirms that she doesn’t trust him.
“Maester Luwin is doing all that can be done for Bran,” she told him. She would not speak of Bran, not here, not with these men. She trusted Littlefinger only a little, and Varys not at all.
Yet, she then goes on to tell Eddard,
“I told Petyr our suspicions about Jon Arryn’s death,” Catelyn said. “He has promised to help you find the truth.”
Somehow she believes the promise, giving Ned not reason not to trust it. Instead she says this to Petyr in front of Ned:
“I will not forget the help you gave me, Petyr.
And then:
“I have found you more than a friend. I have found a brother I’d thought lost.”
In essence she convince Ned to let Petyr into his confidence here despite her reservations, never warning Ned of said reservations. What’s worse, even after Ned’s death and receiving identical stories from Tyrion and Jaime that virtually prove Littlefinger a liar about the dagger (which strongly hints that he betrayed Ned), she continues to have fond memories of “Petyr” (the boy) throughout ACoK and ASoS. Even as late as when she reached the Vale with Tyrion (who said it was in Littlefinger’s nature to lie, something she knows per above), she could have warned Ned, but chose not to. Cat simply had blinders on about the man’s true nature, to her family’s detriment.
For Ned himself, he definitely has his own reservations, thinking later.
Promise or no promise, he could not find it in him to trust Lord Petyr Baelish
Yet again and again, he let’s Littlefinger manipulate him. All the while, he thinks several times of different ways he feels the man can’t be trusted, such as:
Aside from his own retainers, there was scarcely a man in this city he trusted. Littlefinger had concealed Catelyn and helped Ned in his inquiries, yet his haste to save his own skin when Jaime and his swords had come out of the rain still rankled.
Still, he acts in a way that disregards the mental warnings. In the end we all know that the dagger that figuratively stabbed him in the back was trusting Littlefinger in the coup attempt.
Tyrion and Varys and Shae
Tyrion had a blind spot for Shae, and was willfully allowing Varys to play him. We saw how that played out in King’s Landing, with the eunuch and the sex worker ultimately testifying against him in his trial. Varys was playing Tyrion for his own political gain. Shae was manipulating him for money, perhaps more. Tyrion knows about both and goes along with it, hoping he can juggle it all and come out on top, somehow with Shae loving him and Varys actually serving him. It was never going to work.
This passage perfectly illustrates his situation with Varys:
“Lord Janos will be sailing for the Wall on the morning tide. Varys would have me believe that I have replaced one of Joffrey’s men with one of my own. More likely, I have replaced Littlefinger’s man with one belonging to Varys, but so be it.”
So be it. So be what? You’re making an enemy of Littlefinger, and you’ve gained only temporary cooperation with Varys. Tyrion thinks this of Varys:
I rely too much on Varys, he reflected. I need my own informers.
He knew he was being played by Varys, but he never really does anything to counter it. The hand continues to be stacked against him, until finally the trial, when Varys had no more use for Tyrion in King’s landing. I do believe Varys would have let Tyrion be executed, but he turns it to his advantage when Jaime asked him to save the dwarf, sending him to Illyrio. It remains to be seen if Tyrion would be double-crossed again by the eunuch.
As to Shae, he repeatedly tells himself that she only wants money, and he sees how his will to keep her and keep her safe are used by Varys and Shae in their manipulations, but he cannot break free of her spell, even though he commonly has thoughts such as:
Innocence? Fool, she’s a whore, Cersei was right, you think with your cock, fool, fool.
Yet he wants it not to be true, for there to be more to their relationship. He continues to take more and more risks, to be with her and to protect her. This peaks once when Cersei finds Alayaya in Shae’s place. After that he tries to send Shae away, but disingenuous, as his goodbye meetings are always thwarted by her, with Varys all too happy to oblige her staying, as he holds her fate over Tyrion’s head as leverage. Tyrion knows the risk she represents, knows he need only send her away once and for all. He can’t or won’t. It comes to a head when she is forced to testify and then, for him, the final betrayal, finding her in Tywin’s bed.
Jon and Bowen Marsh
Jon follows this pattern with Bowen Marsh (and to a lesser extent with Othell Yarwyck), He knows they are bad news, that they are plotting, and that they care not one fig for him. He never acts on these concerns. He just keeps arguing with them about his vision, as if they might somehow change their own views. He knows that they won’t; he knows what they are.
A lord needed men about him he could rely upon for honest counsel. Marsh and Yarwyck were no lickspittles, and that was to the good … but they were seldom any help either. More and more, he found he knew what they would say before he asked them.
Conclusion
This pattern is pervasive in the story. There are plenty of other examples that I won’t cover in-depth here, such as how Davos constantly sees the dark side of Stannis, but continues to serve because he sees the good as well. Then, Mel knows she can’t understand the flames a lot of the time, but due to her fanaticism, she acts as though she’s 100% certain in their meaning. It leads her to give potentially very bad advice which may be her undoing in the end, though probably not until after some very dark stuff comes to pass (think a certain innocent being burnt). I also think there is some evidence of this with Dany, especially with all the undying visions and Quaithe’s warnings, but there are literally so many untrustworthy people around her that I think she is a special case.
Please respond with your ideas about other places we see this pattern or more detail (or dispute) about the examples I’ve given here!
The Green Bard 